China: The End of History?

Picture: Dan Green/2012

Fukuyama’s view of the post Cold War world as “the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution” has been slapped around quite a bit over the last 20 years – and rightly so.

However, not enough people have extended the slaps to the idea that Western international infrastructure – i.e. the WTO, the IMF and the World Bank – is also something that could be relatively short lived. Academics, journalists and Joe Bloggs alike tend to view these things as collectively agreed upon, rather than tools to promote a primarily American agenda. (see Deudney & Ikenberry for example).

However, as the US declines in relative power, more challenges to this system should be expected. Challenges such as China’s boycott of the IMF financial meetings happening in Japan at the moment.

Despite difficult economic times for most, China’s finance minister and central bank chief have not attended these meetings. No doubt spurred on by recent positive projections regarding the state of the Chinese economy, China is essentially reminding the other participants that it is growing more economically confident and capable each day, and that they need to work with it more than it needs to work with them.

Up until now, China has largely played by the rules – seeking entry into the WTO for example. But, as its power grows, it is likely to adjust the international infrastructure to one that suits its needs more directly – just like the US did. And who can blame it? There have been many studies into how UN decisions during the Cold War were overwhelmingly one-sided, and how the ICC tends to focus on Africa alone. Plus the history of prescribing free trade for the developing world while ignoring duties and quotas in the West has been well documented.

The end of history? No. A changing of the guard? It just might be.

Malaysia: Celebrating Religious Diversity

Malaysia’s reputation as the most liberal Muslim country around has been taking a bit of a battering recently, due to high profile news stories about trying to spot gay children and a lack of progress towards gender equality.

This is why it is good to get a little reminder once in a while of the diversity and tolerance of this Asian nation. A little reminder such as Projek Rumah Ibadat Kita.

As a non-profit youth project, the faiths of PRIK’s members are as diverse as they could be, and collectively they set out to celebrate and promote the diversity of their home. And how do they do that? With a very clever idea.

Yesterday the team set up shop in Brickfields, Kuala Lumpur, offering free walking tours around places of worship for any and all faiths in the area. Mosques, yes, but also Hindu temples, Krishnas, Methodist churches, a Chinese temple, a Sri Lankan Buddhist temple, the Church of our Lady Fatima and an Orthodox Church. But to drum up some interest first, there were noisy displays of martial arts, dance and music too. Judging by the large crowd, the idea was a roaring success.

People outside of Malaysia can be forgiven for misunderstanding the country, as grassroots groups like this rarely hit the news. Lets hope Projek Rumah Ibadat Kita keep running great projects and change a few opinions along the way.

https://www.facebook.com/RumahIbadatKita

China’s economy on the way up

Picture: Dan Green/2012

In a piece earlier this week, I argued that the recent decisions to add import duties to solar power products from China and the blocking of Huawei/ZTE from certain operations were signs that the US was struggling to compete with its rising competitor. In a world of divided opinion regarding China’s trajectory, these moves indicated that the US feels it needs to bend the rules to remain competitive.

Since then, several announcements have appeared that further support this perspective.

First, the IMF dismissed the notion of a crash for the Chinese economy, regardless of the continuing problems in its main export markets. As Anoop Singh, director of the Asia and Pacific department, put it:

China is not having a hard landing. The numbers are clearly recognising that China will grow this year

Then came the announcement earlier today that Chinese exports in September had grown much more than expected – by 9.9% year on year. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and Marcella Chow, quoted in the South China Morning Post, the outlook remained cautious,but

Markets will surely welcome these robust trade data, which could further dispel the fear of a hard landing

The continued strength of the Chinese economy is likely the result of various stimulus methods undertaken by Beijing since 2008. Standing in stark contrast to the failing austerity project in Europe and the UK, this included setting infrastructure targets for local governments totalling 4tn yuan.

Whether or not this growth can be sustained remains to be seen.

Keeping getting pulled over? Try these.

Picture: tuoitrenews.vn

It is common knowledge that the richer you are, the more you can buy your way out of trouble. But what if even phoning a connection or paying a cash ‘fine’ is too much hassle? Well, the super rich in Vietnam have found an ingenious time saving trick – buy your self a diplomatic vehicle!

Diplomats working in Vietnam are allowed to import a vehicle tax free for their personal use, with the cars of choice usually luxury brands such as Ferrari, Mercedes, Porsche and Bentley. When they leave, they can then sell off the car as long as they pay the relevant taxes. The super-rich have been buying the ex-diplomatic cars and having the diplomats sign to say the new owner will pay the due taxes.

All ok so far.

However, with diplomatic plates come diplomatic immunity, so the taxes never get paid and the cars never get pulled over. Of the 4,366 diplomatic vehicles on the streets in Vietnam, 1,200 are being driven illegally.

According to an anonymous Hanoi diplomat, speaking to Vietweek, the cars are more often than not being driven by the children of the country’s elites, meaning that the police turn a blind eye.

When I spoke to the police, the problem is that they know who is driving those cars: the children of the elite. So for the police, it is very difficult for them to investigate

So far, only Phu Tho province has made an effort to confiscate illegally driven diplomatic cars.

Malaysia: Women’s rights, tired of waiting

Picture: Dan Green/2012

The United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) was originally introduced at the Copenhagen Conference on 17 July 1980. 64 States signed the Convention in 1980 and, although waiting 15 years, the Malaysian government’s decision to sign in 1995 was celebrated by feminists and human rights groups alike.

One of the accompanying obligations that comes with signing is that the government should submit a report every four years to summarise steps towards the convention’s goals. An easy task when you have a lot to report, which is why it is unsurprising that that only one report – in 2004 – has been submitted since 1995. This report was a combination of what should have been two separate reports, perhaps as an effort to pad it out a bit. Lets just hope it wasn’t double spaced in extra large font too.

“NGOs became tired of waiting for the [most recent] report, which was due four years ago,” said Ivy Josiah, Executive Director of Women’s Aid Organisation. As a result, Malaysian NGOs have launched an ‘alternative’ report “which details the government’s progress in implementing the Convention’s provisions. We urge the government to submit their report by the end of the year,” Josiah added.

So, what are their conclusions?

• CEDAW hasn’t been written into national law, with no existing gender equality legislation

• woman remain under-represented in politics and decision-making positions

• a lack of rights-based sex education is evident

• marital rape is not recognised as a crime

The report continues with real-life case examples and qualitative descriptions of the many forms of gender discrimination.

There seems to be a lack of political will to fully implement CEDAW.  Unfortunately, this means that discrimination based on gender is alive and well in Malaysia.

Sarah Thwaites (Women’s Aid Organisation)

Critics will argue that the NGOs have their own agenda focusing on the negative aspects but, without a government report as a comparison, the ‘alternative’ report is the most up-to-date and in-depth analysis of the place of women in Malaysian society available.

Besides, as  Shanthi Dairiam- a former CEDAW Committee member – points out, “Globally CEDAW has the least number of overdue reports as compared to other treaties”. Malaysia’s three overdue reports cause it to stand out ever so slightly.

phil muncaster

Today an interesting tale of ideology, back door deal making and hypocrisy as the worlds of government and hi-technology collide.

You’ve presumably all been made aware by now of the US lawmakers’ report into Huawei and ZTE which basically warns off all American firms and government bodies from purchasing their telecoms kit because of the national security risk they pose.

The key point is that the Chinese tech giants were unable to allay investigators’ concerns about the role of Communist Party committees within their firms.

The report has the following:

In essence, these Committees provide a shadow source of power and influence directing, even in subtle ways, the direction and movement of economic resources in China.

It is therefore suspicious that Huawei refuses to discuss or describe that Party Committee’s membership. Huawei similarly refuses to explain what decisions of the company are reviewed by the Party Committee, and how individuals…

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China’s impending collapse? Three little hints

Even the most avid of China watchers – or economists for that matter – could be forgiven for feeling a little confused about whether China is on a route to hegemony or destruction. Almost everyday, articles appear in the media forecasting the inevitable bust and/or the importance of China’s future growth for the world. So, which is it to be?

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Well, if you ever needed a hint that China’s implosion, flowed by a swift reassertion of US authority, was a view built on shaky foundations, this week gave you three: First, the US Commerce Department levied steep import duties on Chinese made solar cells and panels after a case brought by a US based solar cell and panel manufacturer (free trade is for everyone but the US, clearly); next, Canada joined the US in blocking Chinese telecommunication giants Huawei and ZTE by invoking a ‘national security exception’; thirdly, these moves came on the same day that the Chinese PC manufacturer Lenovo knocked Hewlett-Packard Co from the top spot as the world’s number one for the third quarter of this year.

This, of course, does not mean that many of the concerns raised about China’s growth are not legitimate. However, the argument that it is some how a magic trick built on stealing ideas from the West and slave labour is clearly not the whole picture.

Gary Hamilton (Professor, Department of Sociology and The Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington) delivered an excellent lecture in Hong Kong back in March which tracked the growth of manufacturing in the Asian Tigers off the back of mall based shopping in the US. He not only showed how growth was built on very straight forward supply and demand, but also how this then moved into China as the Tigers moved up the value chain. China’s growth is a logical step in industrialization that started in the US, progressed to Asia and is now in China.

Perhaps this is why the World Bank has predicted that China’s slowdown (GDP 9.3% in 2011 to 7.7% this year) is connected to global slowdown, and that its GDP will rise again (to 8.1% in 2013).
Whatever the truth, predictions are predictions, and usually with an agenda of some sort. When they vary as much as they do with China, the truth is probably somewhere in middle.

Too many shoppers?

Shoppers in Hong Kong (Picture: Dan Green/2012)

Hong Kong retailers are doing rather well from the ever growing influx of mainland Chinese tourists to the SAR (playing a quick game of spot the ‘Chow Tai Fook’ in TST gives a pretty clear sense of just how well). But, the ever increasing visibility of their 1.3 billion neighbours naturally becomes a proxy for much deeper running concerns among Hong Kongers regarding their relationship with China.

However, the HK government has chosen to again try to sweep the deeper concerns under carpet, opting place an obviously impossible-to-implement plaster over the issue.

The announcement that they will create a ‘mechanism’ to see how many tourists HK can accommodate and then cap numbers – as many have pointed out – is completely ridiculous. Not only are many of the tourists day trippers, but many others are using HK as a more flexible entry point for Macau to avoid the restrictions on the number of times mainlanders can gamble away their new found fortunes. Further, as anyone who have crossed at Shenzhen recently will tell you, there is a huge number of illegal workers from China (Western English teachers, filipino maids etc ) who regularly come to get new tourist visas.

Quite how the government plans to factor in these aspects, it is not clear. But, either way, it is avoiding the deeper cause of the issue, just as it tried to do recently with the national education plans.

A better government strategy would begin by openly discussing the growing public tension between Hong Kongers and Mainland Chinese. It would then probably need to start focusing on the cultural similarities between the two, but without a nationalist agenda. The fact remains that the vast majority of the population can trace their family back to the mainland in just 1 or 2 generations (The first half of the 1950’s alone saw a population increase of 2.2 million), something that could underpin a growth in cultural understanding that would be a good starting point.

Great post from Victoria Sung

Meanwhile in China

September 29, Shanghai, China — A group of more than 20 mothers sat in Xujiahui Station and breastfed their children to raise awareness of the health benefits of breastfeeding and to advocate for more services catering to new mothers.

The campaign, entitled “Breastfeeding Challenge 2012,” pushes for socialized care for breastfeeding mothers, private feeding rooms in public areas such as subway stations, and breast milk banks.

The campaign hopes to address the lack of postnatal education and care in China, attributed to the typically short maternal stay of 2-3 days in the hospital. According to statistics from the Health Department, only 35% of babies under 4 months of age are breastfed.

Source: [CFP] [k618.cn] (Chinese Language)

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Diaoyu – they remember, we forget

Picture: Dan Green/2012

When it comes to firing people up, resources and energy production rarely draw a crowd. Therefore, the current stand off between China and Japan over the Diaoyu islands (or Senkaku islands, depending on your perspective)  needs to be viewed on at least two levels. Yes, the Chinese and Japanese governments have a vested interest in asserting sovereignty, but the protests and passion from ordinary people go much deeper than that. And, as ever, short memories in the West mean that many of us condemn the peacocking without acknowledging our place in its history.

Sovereignty, from the Chinese perspective, has been fundamental to the formation of China as a modern state. The oft cited ‘century of humiliation’  not only provided the context for this formation – the reluctant realisation that it was one state among many (hierarchy to anarchy) – but also led to the creation of a Chinese Self (at state level) based on an idea of ‘victimhood’ (*See Suzuki, 2007). This is often hard for a western audience to get our heads round, with so much of our theory stemming for the US – a country based on the concept of an enemy Other.

However, like it or not, the exploitation, violence, unequal treaties, stealing of territories and massacres that defined China’s brush with colonialism are  recent history for them. It is why Hong Kong and Macau were important issues; it is why Taiwan remains an important issue; it is why Mao, as the figure who brought an end to this experience, is so revered despite his later atrocities (something Justin Rowlatt failed to comprehend in the recent BBC documentary, China on Four Wheels); it is also why the Chinese get so fired up on this issue. Britain, The USA and Japan – along with France and Russia – were the major players throughout this period, the legacy of which underpins the popular reactions we are seeing now. History is very much still alive.

But the West’s role does not stop with China. As Lex Zhao’s excellent article in the scmp today highlighted, one of the key motivations of Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara’s initiative to buy the islands was to “push [Japanese voters] to amend Article 9 of the [Japanese] constitution”. Why? The US wrote the constitution. Further, Article 9 reads “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” Written by the Americans, for everyone bar the Japanese, this is something guaranteed to stir nationalism – just as it would in almost any state.

Short memories in the West are risky, particularly when interference in foreign affairs are the current trend and while military muscle remains a key vote driver for US presidents-to-be. However, if China and Japan can recognise that they the West is something they both have in common, it could form the start of a resolution. We shall see.

*Suzuki, S. (2007) “The importance of ‘Othering’ in China’s national identity: Sino-Japanese relations as a stage of identity conflicts” The Pacific Review, Vol. 20 No. 1 March 2007: 23–47